U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to Lowest Level Since 2014, Redfin Report Says

U.S. pending home sales fell 4% month over month in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, reaching their lowest level since spring 2014 with the exception of the pandemic freeze in April 2020, according to a recent Redfin report.

The decline came as mortgage rates climbed above 7% by the end of September, the report stated [1][2]. The report described the return of 7% mortgage rates as a shock that hit the U.S. housing market, sending pending sales to near 12-year lows [3].

Pending sales fell from a year earlier in every major U.S. metro, led by Seattle and Southern California, according to the report [1]. Higher mortgage rates pushed more buyers to the sidelines in September even as more homes came onto the market, the report stated [4].

Mortgage Rates Above 7% Deter Buyers Across All 50 Major Metros

The weekly average mortgage rate climbed to 7.28% at the end of September, the highest level in three years, according to the report [1][5]. One industry report described the increase as the largest in four years, reflecting how a bond-market selloff spilled into the broader economy [5].

Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research, said fewer people buy homes when rates climb above 7% because fewer can afford them. The dynamic, Zhao indicated, is one in which affordability constraints remove buyers from the market rather than prompting them to stretch their budgets.

The pattern is consistent with Mises Institute analysis published in December 2025, which reported that home sales had risen from historic lows during a year of falling home prices and frustrated sellers quitting the market, though sales remained down year over year [6]. That report noted the housing market received a small boost from lower mortgage rates last month, with sales of previously owned homes rising for the third-straight month after a weak spring and summer [6].

Prices Show Signs of Cooling as More Homes Sell Below Asking

The pattern echoes reporting from NaturalNews.com in June 2022, which found that nearly one in five sellers lowered their prices during the four-week period ending May 22, the highest rate of price reductions since October 2019, according to a Redfin report at the time [7]. That earlier report noted other indicators also suggested the market was cooling, such as an increase in time on market and a decrease in homes selling above their listing prices [7].

Supply Rises to Highest Since 2020; Contract Cancellations Reach Record Share

A total of 14.5% of homebuying deals that went under contract in September were canceled, the highest share since the start of the pandemic and near a record, the report stated [1][8].

The rise in inventory marks a shift from earlier periods. A Zillow report published in July 2026 found that 381,125 homes were sold in June, up 5.9% year over year, with 403,811 homes newly listed for sale, up 3% from last year [9]. A separate Redfin statement in late June reported new listings dropping by 1.7% for the week ending June 21 to 357,733, which the brokerage described as the lowest level since February [10].

West Coast and Florida Metros Show Largest Declines and Cancellations

The geographic pattern, with coastal and Sun Belt markets showing the sharpest pullbacks, reflects how affordability pressure varies across regions. Redfin reported pending sales fell from a year earlier in every single major U.S. metro, led by Seattle and Southern California [1].

Outlook Remains Uncertain as Buyers Gain Leverage, Sellers Face Slower Market

Zhao said slow sales may cause prices to flatten or fall in the not-so-distant future. The remarks suggest the balance of power has shifted toward buyers after a prolonged period in which sellers held the advantage.

The broader economic backdrop includes persistent affordability strain in major metros. An analysis published in September 2026 found that the median household in Miami earns about $62,000 annually, while homeowners with a mortgage have monthly housing costs pushing $2,900, an annualized figure equal to more than half the median household income [11]. In Los Angeles, the same analysis reported median earnings of $82,000 and monthly housing costs of $3,500, or 51% of annual income [11].

References

1. U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near 12-Year Low. https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-sink-rates/
2. Pending Home Sales Fall to Near 12-Year Low – The MortgagePoint. https://themortgagepoint.com/2026/10/12/pending-home-sales-fall-to-near-12-year-low/
3. Mortgage Shock Sends US Pending Home Sales to Near …. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-12/mortgage-shock-sends-us-pending-home-sales-to-near-12-year-low
4. US pending home sales sink near 12-year low as rates top 7%: Report. https://www.fox9.com/news/us-pending-home-sales-sink-near-12-year-low-rates-top-7-oct-12-2026
5. “Showings Have Stopped”: Housing Market Freezes As Mortgage Rates Soar To 7.28%, Highest In 3 Years. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/showings-have-stopped-housing-market-freezes-mortgage-rates-soar-3-year-high
6. Home Prices and Sales Fall. Can Sellers Count on Lower Interest Rates?. https://mises.org/power-market/home-prices-and-sales-fall-can-sellers-count-lower-interest-rates
7. Home sellers reduce prices as housing market cools off – NaturalNews.com, June 02, 2022.
8. US pending home sales sink near 12-year low as rates top …. https://www.fox9.com/news/us-pending-home-sales-sink-near-12-year-low-rates-top-7-oct-12-2026.amp
9. Home Sales, New Listings Show Notable Increase: Zillow. https://theepochtimes.com/us/home-sales-new-listings-show-notable-increase-zillow-6058874
10. New Listings of US Homes for Sale Fall 1.7 Percent. https://theepochtimes.com/us/new-listings-of-us-homes-for-sale-fall-1-7-percent-6054699
11. The Fed’s Mortgage Policy Made Homeownership Cost More. https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-mortgage-policy-made-homeownership-cost-more

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